Day Ahead Bidding of a Load Aggregator Considering Residential Consumers Demand Response Uncertainty Modeling

Abstract

As the electricity consumption and controllability of residential consumers are gradually increasing, demand response (DR) potentials of residential consumers are increasing among the demand side resources. Since the electricity consumption level of individual households is low, residents’ flexible load resources can participate in demand side bidding through the integration of load aggregator (LA). However, there is uncertainty in residential consumers’ participation in DR. The LA has to face the risk that residents may refuse to participate in DR. In addition, demand side competition mechanism requires the LA to formulate reasonable bidding strategies to obtain the maximum profit. Accordingly, this paper focuses on how the LA formulate the optimal bidding strategy considering the uncertainty of residents’ participation in DR. Firstly, the physical models of flexible loads are established to evaluate the ideal DR potential. On this basis, to quantify the uncertainty of the residential consumers, this paper uses a fuzzy system to construct a model to evaluate the residents’ willingness to participate in DR. Then, based on the queuing method, a bidding decision-making model considering the uncertainty is constructed to maximize the LA’s income. Finally, based on a case simulation of a residential community, the results show that compared with the conventional bidding strategy, the optimal bidding model considering the residents’ willingness can reduce the response cost of the LA and increase the LA’s income.