Data-model interactive prognosis for multi-sensor monitored stochastic degrading devices

Abstract

With advances in sensing and monitoring techniques, real time multi-sensor monitoring data of stochastic degrading devices has become the reality. How to effectively fuse these multi-sensor monitoring data to first construct the composite health index (CHI) and then model its degradation evolving process has become the emerging topic in the field of the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. However, existing works treat the CHI construction and degradation modeling for prognostics under multi-sensor data as the disjoint problems rather than both though they are closely related in nature. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel data-model interactive RUL prediction method for multi-sensor monitored stochastic degrading devices. In the proposed method, based on the CHI extracted from multi-sensor historical data and the associated lifetime prediction via stochastic degradation modeling, an optimization objective function synthesizing the mean squared error between the predicted life and the actual life as well as the variance of the predicted life is constructed. As such, a closed-loop feedback mechanism is established for the CHI constructing and stochastic degradation modeling. Based on this feedback mechanism, the fusion coefficients for multi-sensor data and the failure threshold of the associated CHI are reversely optimized to realize the collaborative interaction between the CHI constructing and stochastic degradation modeling. To do so, the goal of making the constructed CHI automatically match the adopted stochastic degradation model can be achieved naturally. To make the degradation model accurately reflect the current reality of the in-service device, a sequential Bayesian method is proposed to update the degradation model parameters. Based on the updated model, the RUL distribution can be derived under the concept of the first passage time to achieve the prognosis. Finally, through multi-sensor data of aircraft gas turbine engines, we justify the necessity of applying the proposed method in prognosis and show its advantages in the improvements of the signal quality and prognosis accuracy.