Data-Driven Resilient Load Forecasting Model for Smart Metered Distribution System

Abstract

The change in the electricity demand pattern globally due to sudden extreme weather conditions or situations like COVID 19 pandemic has brought unanticipated challenges for the electric utilities and operators around the world. This work primarily deals with the issue of load forecasting during such type of high impact low frequency (HILF) events. In this paper, we propose a novel resilient short-term load forecasting model capable of producing good forecasting performance for normal as well as critical situations during the COVID 19 pandemic and will also be useful for load forecasting for other HILF situations like natural calamity effect on load demand of the power system. The proposed method uses a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) with an added training feature named resiliency factor to forecast load in both regular and special scenarios. The resiliency factor for any type of node in the distribution system is decided by the power utility using the historical data and declared in advance. The proposed model is tested using the smart metered data available from a real-life distribution grid of an academic cum residential campus. The model is giving satisfactory results for both normal as well as COVID scenario for the said network.