Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Mobility Patterns of the Portuguese Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Tiago Tamagusko,Adelino Ferreira

doi:10.3390/su12229775

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019. Since then, it has spread to several countries, becoming classified as a pandemic. So far, there is no definitive treatment or vaccine, so the best solution is to prevent transmission between individuals through social distancing. However, it is not easy to measure the effectiveness of these distance measures. Therefore, this study uses data from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to understand the Portuguese population’s mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the Rt value was modeled for Portugal. In addition, the changepoint was calculated for the population mobility patterns. Thus, the mobility pattern change was used to understand the impact of social distance measures on the dissemination of COVID-19. As a result, it can be stated that the initial Rt value in Portugal was very close to 3, falling to values close to 1 after 25 days. Social isolation measures were adopted quickly. Furthermore, it was observed that public transport was avoided during the pandemic. Finally, until the emergence of a vaccine or an effective treatment, this is the new normal, and it must be understood that new patterns of mobility, social interaction, and hygiene must be adapted to this reality.

Highlights

At the end of 2019, the new Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appeared in the province of Wuhan (China) [1], causing cases of a disease named COVID-19 to occur [2]
Concerning Portugal, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was on 3 March, 2020 [5], since the Portuguese government has adopted a series of measures to control the pandemic
There are no vaccines for this disease, so the best strategy to combat COVID-19 is to prevent its transmission through social distancing

Summary

Introduction

At the end of 2019, the new Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appeared in the province of Wuhan (China) [1], causing cases of a disease named COVID-19 to occur [2]. To combat COVID-19, China adopted the lockdown of this province on 23 January [3] This disease spread rapidly to other countries, with the first cases reported in Europe in the second half of January [4]. Most European countries face the challenge of reactivating their economies; this task is linked to the gradual re-opening of services, public communal areas, and public transport It is still not fully understood how the population has adopted the lockdown measures. Recent studies show that mobility patterns can considerably change contagion risk, with maintaining work on-site during the pandemic crisis being the factor identified as having the most significant risk [11] Based on this result, it can be said that the change in the population’s habits plays a significant role in the spread of COVID-19 in the community. We hope that this study will contribute to the choice of better public policies to combat this pandemic

Events

May 2020

Conclusions