Abstract
Variations in the airborne pollen load are among the current and expected impacts on plant pollination driven by climate change. Due to the potential risk for pollen-allergy sufferers, this study aimed to analyze the trends of the three most abundant spring-tree pollen types, Pinus, Platanus and Quercus, and to evaluate the possible influence of meteorological conditions. An aerobiological study was performed during the 1993–2020 period in the Ourense city (NW Spain) by means of a Hirst-type volumetric sampler. Meteorological data were obtained from the ‘Ourense’ meteorological station of METEOGALICIA. We found statistically significant trends for the Total Pollen in all cases. The positive slope values indicated an increase in pollen grains over the pollen season along the studied years, ranging from an increase of 107 to 442 pollen grains. The resulting C5.0 Decision Trees and Rule-Based Models coincided with the Spearman’s correlations since both statistical analyses showed a strong and positive influence of temperature and sunlight on pollen release and dispersal, as well as a negative influence of rainfall due to washout processes. Specifically, we found that slight rainfall and moderate temperatures promote the presence of Pinus pollen in the atmosphere and a marked effect of the daily thermal amplitude on the presence of high Platanus pollen levels. The percentage of successful predictions of the C5.0 models ranged between 62.23–74.28%. The analysis of long-term datasets of pollen and meteorological information provides valuable models that can be used as an indicator of potential allergy risk in the short term by feeding the obtained models with weather prognostics.
Highlights
Airborne pollen can be used for the study of the structure of plant communities in a determined area, mainly defining the presence of taxa characterized by a predominant anemophilous pollination mechanism
Pollen tained as an Seasonal average Distribution of the 1993–2020 period, we observed airborne pollen grains over the
We found that the highest airborne pollen levels were recorded during two main periods, in April and May, and in July
Summary
Airborne pollen can be used for the study of the structure of plant communities in a determined area, mainly defining the presence of taxa characterized by a predominant anemophilous pollination mechanism. Climate change may trigger shifts in spatial and temporal airborne pollen loads since pollen concentrations are usually highly temperature-sensitive, leading to increases in pollen concentrations and/or lengthening of pollen seasons [9,10,11,12,13]. This issue acquires remarkable importance in urban areas since at least 50% of the worlds population currently inhabits this kind of settlement, contrasting with rural zones [14]. Urban environments are potential sources of allergenic pollen particles, with highly abundant airborne pollen from a number of tree and shrub species, despite the fact that floral diversity is reduced and pollen sources are relatively scarce in towns [15]
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