Abstract
In 2004 we suggested that a major challenge to mathematical modelers was to ". . . construct a model that involves only penile-vaginal sex and that reproduces the epidemic curve seen in the 11 southern African nations that account for half of the disease on the African continent". French et al respond with a model that meets many of the specifications we detailed and they also develop a model for HIV transmission through contaminated needles and syringes in healthcare settings. From their simulations they conclude that an HIV epidemic based on sexual transmission was easy to start and sustain with estimates of transmission probabilities and partner change they deem "plausible." In contrast they argue that the transmission probabilities and number of injections with reused equipment required to generate an epidemic are "unfeasibly high." (excerpt)
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