Data for critical infrastructure network modelling of natural hazard impacts: Needs and influence on model characteristics

Abstract

Natural hazards impact interdependent infrastructure networks that keep modern society functional. While a variety of modelling approaches are available to represent critical infrastructure networks (CINs) on different scales and analyse the impacts of natural hazards, a recurring challenge for all modelling approaches is the availability and accessibility of sufficiently high-quality input and validation data. The resulting data gaps often require modellers to assume specific technical parameters, functional relationships, and system behaviours. In other cases, expert knowledge from one sector is extrapolated to other sectoral structures or even cross-sectorally applied to fill data gaps. The uncertainties introduced by these assumptions and extrapolations and their influence on the quality of modelling outcomes are often poorly understood and difficult to capture, thereby eroding the reliability of these models to guide resilience enhancements. Additionally, ways of overcoming the data availability challenges in CIN modelling, with respect to each modelling purpose, remain an open question. To address these challenges, a generic modelling workflow is derived from existing modelling approaches to examine model definition and validations, as well as the six CIN modelling stages, including mapping of infrastructure assets, quantification of dependencies, assessment of natural hazard impacts, response & recovery, quantification of CI services, and adaptation measures. The data requirements of each stage were systematically defined, and the literature on potential sources was reviewed to enhance data collection and raise awareness of potential pitfalls. The application of the derived workflow funnels into a framework to assess data availability challenges. This is shown through three case studies, taking into account their different modelling purposes: hazard hotspot assessments, hazard risk management, and sectoral adaptation. Based on the three model purpose types provided, a framework is suggested to explore the implications of data scarcity for certain data types, as well as their reasons and consequences for CIN model reliability. Finally, a discussion on overcoming the challenges of data scarcity is presented.