Data extrapolation techniques for energy systems planning

Abstract

This paper first reviews energy planning problems in India at different levels (all India/Rural India/State/District/Block/Village). It surveys the energy scene in rural areas of the Wardha District for applicational study. It deals with the newly proposed statistical extrapolation technique of either moving first from the village level energy scenario to the corresponding block level energy scenario and then from the block level energy scenarios to the district/region level energy profile. It shows how the model is suitably scaled for obtaining the optimal mix of energy resources and technologies for the Wardha District using a computer based mixed integer/linear programming technique. The average absolute % error is calculated between the actual district/region level energy scenario and the statistical projected (extrapolated) district/region level energy scenario to gauge the goodness of fit of the proposed statistical extrapolation technique.