Data-driven zonations for modelling the regional source and propagation effects into a Ground Motion Models in Italy

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to provide two zonations of Italy useful to incorporate regional source and path effects in empirical Ground Motion Models (GMMs). To this end, we revise existing zonations developed for seismic and tsunami hazard studies, based on the results of a residual analysis between the observations of the ITACAext dataset and the predictions of ITA18, a GMM recently developed for Italy. The analysis consists in the decomposition of the residuals into repeatable terms, according to the well-established approach used for the calibration of non-ergodic models. Based on the spatial trend of the interpolated residuals, and geological and seismological considerations, the zonations are proposed and discussed, in the perspective of supporting regionalization of a future generation of GMMs for Italy.