Data-driven urban configuration optimization: An XGBoost-based approach for mitigating flood susceptibility and enhancing economic contribution

Abstract

The indiscriminate evolution of urban configurations aggravates flood vulnerabilities, threatening sustainable urban expansion. Present methodologies fall short in supplying urban planners with flood mitigative strategies centered on urban configuration facets. Leveraging the power of the XGBoost algorithm, this study posits an advanced optimization schema, adroitly balancing the dual objectives of mitigating urban flooding and enhancing economic growth, with minimal disruption to established urban layouts. Shenzhen serves as the investigative ground, where the model displays exceptional accuracy, resilience, and interpretability in predicting Pluvial Flooding Susceptibility (PFS) and Economic Contribution (EC). Model interpretation divulges the profound influence of three-dimensional urban configuration elements, primarily the Building Congestion Degree, on PFS and EC. Pareto solution exploration for multi-objective optimization unveils the ideal urban configuration interval. To minimize PFS while maximizing EC, the research suggests pertinent measures: augmenting vegetation density, regulating the impervious coverage ratio within 50–70%, limiting two- and three-dimensional building density thresholds, and moderately escalating urban drainage network density. Additionally, it encourages a comprehensive appreciation of function-oriented land usage and intrinsic site topographical characteristics to reconcile varied urban development goals during planning. By fusing data-derived insights with multi-objective optimization, this research anticipates influencing urban planning models, thus enhancing decision-making related to urban configuration and fostering flood-resilient, sustainable, and economically prosperous urban habitats.