Data-driven revision of coal spontaneous combustion risk classification for prevailing methods used in Australian mining industry

Abstract

Spontaneous combustion poses persistent hazards in underground coal mining operations, threatening personnel and operations. To assess this risk, in Australia small-scale laboratory tests are being conducted using Adiabatic Oxidation (R70), Crossing Point (CPT) and Minimum Self-Heating Temperature (SHTmin) methods. The intrinsic spontaneous combustion propensity classification (ISCP) utilizes R70 results to establish a risk rating. This risk ranking provides guidance on the severity of spontaneous combustion ranging from low to extremely high, aiding in the implementation of preventive measures. However, The ISCP lacks supporting literature, and there is no existing literature on correlation between laboratory tests or risk matrix for CPT. This paper presents the results of a Spearman correlation study among R70, CPT and SHTmin based on a large historical database (n = 318) showing that only R70 and CPT can be used to reliably rank spontaneous combustion risk. It was found that CPT is strongly correlated with R70 (ρ = -0.8875), but SHTmin shows a weaker correlation with R70 (ρ = -0.7265). The hierarchical clustering analysis resulted in a revised risk ranking: Low (R70 < 0.4 °C/h, CPT > 156 °C), Medium (0.4 °C/h < R70 < 3 °C/h, 132 °C < CPT < 156 °C), High (3 °C/h < R70 < 11 °C/h, 102 °C < CPT < 132 °C), and Very High (R70 > 11 °C/h, CPT < 102 °C).