Data-Driven Predictive Modeling of Mineral Prospectivity Using Random Forests: A Case Study in Catanduanes Island (Philippines)

Abstract

The Random Forests (RF) algorithm is a machine learning method that has recently been demonstrated as a viable technique for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity, and thus, it is instructive to further examine its usefulness in this particular field. A case study was carried out using data from Catanduanes Island (Philippines) to investigate further (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with few (i.e., <20) mineral occurrences and (b) if RF modeling can handle predictor variables with missing values. We found that RF modeling outperforms evidential belief (EB) modeling of prospectivity for hydrothermal Au–Cu deposits in Catanduanes Island, where 17 hydrothermal Au–Cu prospects are known to exist. Moreover, just like EB modeling, RF modeling allows analysis of the spatial relationships between known prospects and individual layers of predictor data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in predictor data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in EB modeling, missing values are simply represented by maximum uncertainty. Therefore, the RF algorithm is a potentially useful method for data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity in regions with few (i.e., <20) occurrences of mineral deposits of the type sought. However, further testing of the method in other regions with few mineral occurrences is warranted to fully determine its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.