Data-Driven Modeling of Human Development Index in Eastern Indonesia's Region Using Gaussian Techniques Empowered by Machine Learning

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistical measure used to measure and evaluate the progress and quality of human life in a country. For the Government of Indonesia, HDI is important because it is used to create or develop effective policies and programs. In addition, HDI is also used as one of the allocators in determining the General Allocation Fund. The 2022 HDI data released by BPS shows that there has been an increase in the HDI in each district/city over the last 12 years, including in the regions of Eastern Indonesia. High and low HDI values are influenced by several factors, and there are indications that there is spatial diversity where surrounding areas tend to have HDI levels that are not far from the area. The Geographically Weighted Regression method is used in this study because it takes into account spatial aspects. However, the GWR model must be built repeatedly if there is regional expansion. Therefore, a GWR model that applies machine learning methods is needed where the model is built and tested using different datasets, namely training data and test data, so that the model can predict new data better. The results obtained are that the GWR model with test data has a better R-Square value when compared to the GWR model previously trained using training data, which is 0.9946702, based on the linear regression model shows the results that the most influential factor on HDI in Eastern Indonesia is expected years of schooling (X2).