Data-driven methods for situation awareness and operational adjustment of sustainable energy integration into power systems

Abstract

In the context of increasing complexity in power system operations due to the integration of renewable energy sources, two main challenges arise: accurate short-term wind power forecasting and power flow convergence control. Accurate wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in power system scheduling, while controlling power flow convergence is essential for system stability. This study proposes a concise short-term wind power generation prediction model that combines a feature selection-based convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-term memory network (CNN-BiLSTM) model. By effectively screening multidimensional feature datasets, the model optimizes the selection of highly correlated feature parameters and assigns weights to input data based on feature correlation. The CNN-BiLSTM combination model is then employed to establish a predictive model for wind power generation based on multiple features. Additionally, this study introduces an automatic adjustment model for power flow convergence using the D3QN (Double Dueling Q Network) reinforcement learning algorithm. This addresses the challenge of power imbalance leading to flow non-convergence, enabling effective control of power flow convergence and adaptive adjustment of operating modes. Experiments conducted using the KDD Cup 2022 wind power prediction dataset validate the wind power prediction method. The results demonstrate that the CNN-BiLSTM model effectively utilizes time-series data, surpassing other neural networks in prediction accuracy. Simulation results based on the PYPOWER case39 standard case reveal that the reinforcement learning model’s reward value increases with training rounds and stabilizes at 40. Remarkably, more than 72% of abnormal flow samples achieve rapid convergence within 10 steps, affirming the proposed method's efficacy and computational efficiency. The findings of this study contribute to enhancing the accurate awareness of new energy integration into power systems and provide a novel adaptive control method for power flow.