Data-driven mathematical simulation analysis of emergency evacuation time in smart station's operations management.

Abstract

This research establishes an emergency evacuation time model specifically designed for subway stations with complex structures. The model takes into account multiple factors, including passenger flow rate, subway facility parameters, and crowd density, to accurately assess evacuation times. It considers the impact of horizontal walking distance, flow rate, subway train size, and stair parameters on the overall evacuation process. By identifying bottleneck points such as gates, car doors, and stairs, the model facilitates the evaluation of evacuation capacity and the formulation of effective evacuation plans, particularly in multiline subway transfer stations. The good consistency is achieved between the calculated evacuation time and simulated results using the Pathfinder software (with the relative error of 5.4%). To address urban traffic congestion and enhance subway station safety, the study recommends implemented measures for emergency diversion and passenger flow control. Additionally, the research presents characteristic mathematical models for various evacuation routes by considering the structural and temporal characteristics of metro systems. These models provide valuable guidance for conducting large-scale passenger evacuation simulations in complex environments. Future research can further enhance the model by incorporating psychological factors, evacuation signage, and strategies for vulnerable populations. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of evacuation dynamics and provides practical insights to improve safety and efficiency in subway systems.