Data-Driven Management-A Dynamic Occupancy Approach to Enhanced Rabies Surveillance Prioritization.

Amy J. Davis,Kathleen M. Nelson,Jordona D. Kirby,Richard B. Chipman,Amy T. Gilbert

doi:10.3390/v13091795

Amy J. Davis, Kathleen M. Nelson + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/v13091795

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Abstract

Rabies lyssavirus (RABV) is enzootic in raccoons across the eastern United States. Intensive management of RABV by oral rabies vaccination (ORV) has prevented its spread westward and shown evidence of local elimination in raccoon populations of the northeastern US. The USDA, Wildlife Services, National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) collaborates with other agencies to implement broad-scale ORV and conducts extensive monitoring to measure the effectiveness of the management. Enhanced Rabies Surveillance (ERS) was initiated during 2005 and updated in 2016 to direct surveillance efforts toward higher-value specimens by assigning points to different methods of encountering specimens for collection (strange-acting, roadkill, surveillance-trapped, etc.; specimen point values ranged from 1 to 15). We used the 2016–2019 data to re-evaluate the point values using a dynamic occupancy model. Additionally, we used ERS data from 2012–2015 and 2016–2019 to examine the impact that the point system had on surveillance data. Implementation of a point system increased positivity rates among specimens by 64%, indicating a substantial increase in the efficiency of the ERS to detect wildlife rabies. Our re-evaluation found that most points accurately reflect the value of the surveillance specimens. The notable exception was that samples from animals found dead were considerably more valuable for rabies detection than originally considered (original points = 5, new points = 20). This work demonstrates how specimen prioritization strategies can be used to refine and improve ERS in support of wildlife rabies management.

Highlights

Effective surveillance is a fundamental component of wildlife disease management.Understanding the spatial and temporal extent of disease occurrence is critical to enact appropriate management actions aimed at the prevention of disease spread and elimination [1]
During 2016–2019, there were 20,488 raccoons sampled across both study areas, with raccoons sampled in study area 1 and 17,639 raccoons sampled in study area 2 (Table 2)
The results of this study show that the current point system generally does a good job at reflecting the relative values of the different surveillance methods (Table 2)

Summary

Introduction

Effective surveillance is a fundamental component of wildlife disease management.Understanding the spatial and temporal extent of disease occurrence is critical to enact appropriate management actions aimed at the prevention of disease spread and elimination [1]. Effective surveillance is a fundamental component of wildlife disease management. Resources to conduct disease surveillance targeting wildlife are often limited [2]; it is important to understand how to maximize the probability of detecting diseases in wildlife populations through enhanced surveillance efforts. A recognized wildlife zoonosis of global importance is rabies lyssavirus (RABV). Multiple variants of RABV independently and naturally circulate in carnivore and bat wildlife populations [3]. In the United States, raccoons (Procyon lotor) constitute the largest proportion of rabid terrestrial wildlife and are most frequently infected with the raccoon variant of RABV [4]. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) supports controlling rabies in source populations, such as in raccoons in North America [5]. Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is a management approach that has proven effective to control red fox (Vulpes vulpes)

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