Data-Driven Exhaust Gas Temperature Baseline Predictions for Aeroengine Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

The exhaust gas temperature (EGT) baseline of an aeroengine is key to accurately analyzing engine health, formulating maintenance decisions and ensuring flight safety. However, due to the complex performance characteristics of aeroengine and the constraints of many external factors, it is difficult to obtain accurate non-linear features between various operating factors and EGT. In order to diagnose and forecast aeroengine performance quickly and accurately, four data-driven baseline prediction frameworks for EGT are proposed. These baseline frameworks took engine operating conditions and operating state control parameters as input variables and EGT as predicted output variables. The original data were collected from CFM56-5B engine ACARS flight data. Four typical machine learning methods, including Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Radial Basis Neural Network (RBF), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) are trained to develop the models. Four aeroengine EGT baseline models were validated by comparing the after-flight data of another engine. The results show that the developed GRNN models have the best accuracy and computational efficiency compared with other models, and their RE and CPU calculation time on the verification set are 1.132 × 10−3 and 3.512 × 10−3 s, respectively. The developed baseline prediction frameworks can meet the needs of practical engineering applications for airlines. The methodologies developed can be employed by airlines to predict the EGT baseline for the purpose of engine performance monitoring and health management.