Data-driven Decision Making in Doctor of Physical Therapy Curricula Part I: Program-level Analysis

Abstract

Background and Purpose. We describe a data-driven internal curricular review process for professional (entry-level) physical therapist education programs. Using National Physical Therapy Exam (NPTE) performance as an outcome measure, we test the ability of individual courses, as well as summary grade point averages (GPAs), to identify students at risk for failure in the first attempt of the NPTE. Methods. National Physical Therapy Exam score was modeled in a simple univariate linear regression on 2 sets of predictor variables: individual course final grades and summary GPAs. First-time NPTE performance was configured in 2 measures: a continuous measure of exam score and a dichotomous pass–fail index. For NPTE score as a continuous measure, linear regression was used to test for association. For pass–fail, we tested for optimal grade or GPA benchmark by systematic thresholding across a range of numerical grades (70–95%) or grade points (1.5–4.0). Methods were demonstrated in the setting of a dataset collected from a single graduate cohort (N = 36), among whom 26 first-time NPTE scores were available. Exploratory analyses tested the sensitivity of this analysis to datasets containing letter grades, and repeatability across 5 cohorts. Outcomes. Grade distributions in individual courses (n = 12) were weak to moderate predictors of NPTE score (range: 0.00 < R 2 < 0.60); curricular GPA distributions (n = 6) were moderate to fair predictors (0.4 < R 2 < 0.7). Overall undergraduate GPA and GPA in prerequisite science courses were found to not predict first-time NPTE score whatsoever. Optimal grade criterion within the classes ranged from 79 to 93 points; optimal GPA criteria ranged from 2.6 to 3.4. At-risk students were identifiable as early as the end of the first semester. Model consistency varied somewhat when replicated across 5 cohorts but showed general consistency in maintaining relative strengths of measured associations. This method showed robustness to conversion to letter-grade format. Discussion and Conclusion. Risk for failure in first-attempt NPTE is a parameter that can be measured, and at-risk students can be identified early in their physical therapist education programs. Internal policy making should be guided by program experience and use data at the per-course or per-semester level.