Data-Driven Classification and Logging Prediction of Mudrock Lithofacies Using Machine Learning: Shale Oil Reservoirs in the Eocene Shahejie Formation, Bonan Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, Eastern China

Abstract

As the world’s energy demand continues to expand, shale oil has a substantial influence on the global energy reserves. The third submember of the Mbr 3 of the Shahejie Fm, characterized by complicated mudrock lithofacies, is one of the significant shale oil enrichment intervals of the Bohai Bay Basin. The classification and identification of lithofacies are key to shale oil exploration and development. However, the efficiency and reliability of lithofacies identification results can be compromised by qualitative classification resulting from an incomplete workflow. To address this issue, a comprehensive technical workflow for mudrock lithofacies classification and logging prediction was designed based on machine learning. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were conducted to realize the automatic classification of lithofacies, which can classify according to the internal relationship of the data without the disturbance of human factors and provide an accurate lithofacies result in a much shorter time. The PCA and HCA results showed that the third submember can be split into five lithofacies: massive argillaceous limestone lithofacies (MAL), laminated calcareous claystone lithofacies (LCC), intermittent lamellar argillaceous limestone lithofacies (ILAL), continuous lamellar argillaceous limestone lithofacies (CLAL), and laminated mixed shale lithofacies (LMS). Then, random forest (RF) was performed to establish the identification model for each of the lithofacies and the obtained model is optimized by grid search (GS) and K-fold cross validation (KCV), which could then be used to predict the lithofacies of the non-coring section, and the three validation methods showed that the accuracy of the GS–KCV–RF model were all above 93%. It is possible to further enhance the performance of the models by resampling, incorporating domain knowledge, and utilizing the mechanism of attention. Our method solves the problems of the subjective and time-consuming manual interpretation of lithofacies classification and the insufficient generalization ability of machine-learning methods in the previous works on lithofacies prediction research, and the accuracy of the model for mudrocks lithofacies prediction is also greatly improved. The lithofacies machine-learning workflow introduced in this study has the potential to be applied in the Bohai Bay Basin and comparable reservoirs to enhance exploration efficiency and reduce economic costs.