Abstract
The contemporary technological advancements in information and communication technologies (ICT) enable the employment of non-traditional data sources (e.g. satellite data, sensors, cell phone networks data, social media, etc.) in different aspects of the public sphere. Datafication is changing the relationship between governments and citizens, and the way governments address policy problems. Nowadays, policy-makers are urged to harness data for policies and public service design, while answering at the same time the demand for citizen engagement; as a consequence, innovative government/governance models appeared to connect these two instances. Although it is not a new concept, the model of Anticipatory Governance is particularly worth considering in light of contemporary data availability. Predictive analytics based on data increasingly realizes predictions for public action, although it presents many controversial implications (e.g. the epistemology of data evidence, public trust and privacy). In this article, we address Anticipatory Governance models emerging from data used in futures thinking and policy-making. To understand this phenomenon, we will briefly retrace current paradigms of futures thinking and Anticipatory Governance concerning policy-making, specifying the contemporary perspective design has on these topics. Then, we identify the use of data in futures thinking practices through a systematic literature search. Finally, we will address the challenges and implications of designing data-driven Anticipatory Governance by portraying three scenarios supported by real cases of data for policy-making.
Highlights
The contemporary technological advancements in information and communication technologies (ICT) enable the employment of non-traditional data sources in different aspects of the public sphere
Predictive analytics based on data increasingly realizes predictions for public action, it presents many controversial implications
We will address the challenges and implications of designing datadriven Anticipatory Governance by portraying three scenarios supported by real cases of data for policy-making
Summary
Anticipatory Governance is not a univocal concept. Instead, it evolved throughout decades of theoretical reflection and public initiatives connecting foresight and various governance models (Ramos 2014). The scenario building techniques initially developed for policy analysis in military defense during the Cold War, are a clear example, still widely used today, of this approach in practice This strategic orientation toward readiness is present in relatively recent definitions of foresight in policy: Foresight in government cannot define policy, but it can help condition policies to be more appropriate, more flexible, and more robust in their implementation, as times and circumstances change. From strict probabilistic predictions issued by groups of experts, anticipation in government evolved, through foresight, into an engaged practice that might tackle many topics and involve diverse stakeholders (Miles et al 2008) This interactive and participative dimension might be seen as the colliding point between design disciplinary perspective and anticipating futures for policy.
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