Data-Driven Analysis for Safe Ship Operation in Ports Using Quantile Regression Based on Generalized Additive Models and Deep Neural Network.

Hyeong-Tak Lee,Ik-Soon Cho,Hyun Yang

doi:10.3390/s21248254

Abstract

Marine accidents in ports can cause loss of human life and property and have negative material and environmental impacts. In South Korea, due to a pier collision accident of a large container ship in Busan New Port of South Korea, the need for safe ship operation guidelines in ports emerged. Therefore, to support quantitative safe ship operation guidelines, ship trajectory data based on automatic information system information have been used. However, because this trajectory information is variable and uncertain due to various situations arising during a ship’s navigation, there is a limit to deriving results through traditional regression analysis. Considering the characteristics of these data, we analyzed ship trajectories through quantile regression using two models based on generalized additive models and neural networks corresponding to deep learning. Among the automatic information system information, the speed over ground, course over ground, and ship’s position were analyzed, and the model was evaluated based on quantile loss. Based on this study, it is possible to suggest safe operation guidelines for the position, speed, and course of the ship. In addition, the results of this work can be further developed as a manual for the in-port-autonomous operation of ships in the future.

Highlights

Maritime accidents in ports cause loss of human life and physical damage to ships, and have economic consequences for maritime transportation and environmental consequences in ports [1]
Work Quantile regression-based generalized additive models (GAMs) and a QRNN were applied for realizing guidelines for safe ship operation in ports using automatic identification system (AIS)-based ship trajectory data
The novelty of this work is that the speed over ground (SOG), course over ground (COG), and ship’s position information can be analyzed by quantile

Summary

Introduction

Maritime accidents in ports cause loss of human life and physical damage to ships, and have economic consequences for maritime transportation and environmental consequences in ports [1]. As a result of the introduction of increasingly massive ships, greater safety measures are required in the operation of ships in ports [2]. Maritime accidents resulting from human factors in the piloting process, such as the inability to control excessive speed of the ship in a timely manner or the inability to secure a sufficiently safe distance from the pier, have become frequent [3]. A typical example is the pier collision accident of a 13,900 TEU container ship that was entering Busan New Port in April 2020 [4]. Considerable other damages and injuries to cargo workers were incurred

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Conclusion