Abstract
COVID-19 has spread throughout the world, including in Southeast Asia. Many studies have made predictions using various models. However, very few are data-driven based. Meanwhile for the COVID-19 case, which is still ongoing, it is very suitable to use data-driven approach with phenomenological models. This paper aimed to obtain effective forecasting models and then predict when COVID-19 in Southeast Asia will peak and end using daily cumulative case data. The research applied the Richards curve and the logistic growth model, combining the two models to make prediction of the COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia, both the countries with one pandemic wave or those with more than one pandemic wave. The best prediction results were obtained using the Richards curve with the logistic growth model parameters used as the initial values. In the best scenario, the Southeast Asia region is expected to be free from the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2021. These modeling results are expected to provide information about the provision of health facilities and how to handle infectious disease outbreaks in the future.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread evenly in almost all countries in the world
The countries in the Southeast Asian region were divided into two groups: the first group consisting of countries that still experienced one pandemic wave, namely Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Myanmar
The second group consisted of countries that had more than one wave, namely the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread evenly in almost all countries in the world. In early April 2021, the cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the world reached 140 million cases, and around 3 million people died. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been known that there were between 290,000 and 650,000 people who died from complications from seasonal influenza viruses. The SARS pandemic spread to 29 countries from November 2002 to July 2003, where there were 8,096 people infected, and with a mortality rate of 9.6%, there were around 774 deaths (from Worldometers). MERS was found in 2012, which infected 2,494 people with a mortality rate of 34.4%. The COVID-19 case infected more people than the previous outbreak cases, with a high mortality rate (Edrada et al, 2020)
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