Data-based revision of probability distributions in qualitative multi-attribute decision models

Abstract

An automatic data-based revision method of probabilistic multi-attribute decision models is proposed. Data-based revision of decision models is defined as follows: given an existing model and a set of data items, revise the model to match the data items. We propose and experimentally evaluate a method for the revision of probability distributions in qualitative hierarchical multi-attribute models of DEX methodology. The revision method is automatic, but limited to the modification of probability distributions in utility functions. The method is experimentally evaluated in an artificial domain. In all experiments, the classification accuracy of the revised model was improved and the changes of the model correctly reflected the simulated changes in the decision environment.