Abstract
Complex biophysical, social, and human behavioral factors influence population vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. Spatially and temporally dynamic environmental and anthropogenic patterns require sophisticated mapping and modeling techniques. While many studies use environmental variables to predict risk, human population vulnerability has been a challenge to incorporate into spatial risk models. This study demonstrates and applies dasymetric mapping techniques to map spatial patterns of vulnerable human populations and characterize potential exposure to mosquito vectors of West Nile Virus across Chesapeake, Virginia. Mosquito vector abundance is quantified and combined with a population vulnerability index to evaluate exposure of human populations to mosquitoes. Spatial modeling is shown to capture the intersection of environmental factors that produce spatial hotspots in mosquito vector abundance, which in turn poses differential risks over time to humans. Such approaches can help design overall mosquito pest management and identify high-risk areas in advance of extreme weather.
Highlights
The spread of vectors and growing number of vector-borne diseases pose a major threat to human health
This study found that the highest clusters of West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreaks were located in agriculture and grassland areas
As concerns over potential WNV outbreak evolved, dead birds, cases of Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE has historic prevalence in this area), and public mosquito abatement service requests were georeferenced for possible analysis and comparison to mosquito vector trap data and human population exposure
Summary
The spread of vectors and growing number of vector-borne diseases pose a major threat to human health. Using GIS techniques, spatial analyses were conducted in this study to track the trends in competent vector species abundance and identify coincident population most susceptible to mosquito-borne diseases and estimate relative risk of disease transmission to humans. Using monthly mosquito abundance values and human population vulnerability data, a monthly risk index is calculated which estimates the exposure to mosquito vector species These objectives underscore the overall goal of this study, to improve prediction of the risk of exposure to mosquitoes across Chesapeake, Virginia, during the peak mosquito breeding summer months of June to August. Because vector-borne disease incidence is intrinsically dependent on exposure to the disease pathogen and vectors, human vulnerability indices must necessarily derive from overlays with the mosquito abundance values in order to estimate risk In such an approach, spatial overlay becomes the critical proxy for potential spatial interaction between vectors and humans. The exposure risk indices are calculated on a raster grid on a pixel-by pixel basis
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