Das postmalthusianische Zeitalter: Die Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland, 1815–1871

Abstract

The study constructs new data series for population and vital rates in the German states between 1815 and 1871 and aggregates these to the national level. Major improvements in the data at state level include a broadening of the source material, the determination of population size in years between censuses on the basis of recorded natural increase, and a correction for improvement of population coverage across the censuses taken between the late 1810s and the 1830s. The resulting national series also show broader regional coverage than the earlier series constructed by Hoffmann (1965). The new series establish that the period from the late 1810s to the 1870s can be characterized as Germany’s post-Malthusian era: High population growth of 0.8 per cent p. a. could coexist with largely stable real wages in the long run, implying that expansion of demand for labour compensated for the negative effect of population growth on material welfare. Moreover, on the national level (not on the regional level) natural increase was positive in every single year during the period under study. Nevertheless, vital rates and the emigration rate remained vulnerable to fluctuations of grain production.