Das gegenwärtige Niedrigzinsumfeld aus Sicht der Sparkassen

Abstract

For many years, in most industrial countries, there has been a trend of declining nominal and real interest rates. Still, the current environment of extremely low or even negative rates prevailing in the Euro area and in Germany is an exceptional situation without historical precedent. The current interest rate levels can to some extent be explained by the current macroeconomic environment in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, even if an alleged “savings glut” is not a conclusive explanation in itself. Still, the ECBs monetary policy has a strong impact on nominal and real interest rate levels, too. At the same time, it proves increasingly powerless or even counterproductive with respect to overcoming the current economic weakness in the Euro area. The current environment of extremely low interest rate levels puts an enormous pressure on Sparkassen and other providers of financial services in Germany. Still more serious, a lasting environment of close-to-zero interest rates will have profound negative consequences for the financial system as a whole. Instead of the traditional German values of precaution, provision and savings—the Sparkultur, which has for more than 200 years been propagated by the Sparkassen—Germany and the Euro area might end up in a macroeconomic situation similar to that currently prevailing in Japan.