Abstract
Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the research. Based on ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS, rule of oil price movements is found and a prediction of oil price is made using the data from the first 10 months of 2011.
Highlights
IC The oil, as industrial production of raw material, has a pivotal role in the rapid economic development
Due to changes in the international crude oil price is affected by many factors
A estimate the parameters and make predictions [18].The results show that GARCH / EGARCH model estimated volatil
Summary
IC The oil, as industrial production of raw material, has a pivotal role in the rapid economic development. A oil is erratic, which makes China's domestic oil prices there are some changes. On behalf of the former is Delphi method, it basically can be divided into three structural models such as regression, linear and nonlinear time. R model can well explain the effects of changes in supply and demand, but Pindyck (1999) [1] found that it predicted the. E ARIMA method can be used to predict oil prices. Because it Ris predictable process, to consider the value of the market supply and demand conditions, development of the situation in the world economy, even terrorism, geopolitical risk, speculation, weather changes and other uncertain factors affect changes in international oil prices. When the integrity of the major banks to exit the oil market, it will completely change has lasted more than a decade of the "Wall Street refiners" dominant oil situation
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