Dangers of Noncritical Use of Historical Plague Data

Joris Roosen,Daniel R Curtis

doi:10.3201/eid2401.170477

Abstract

Researchers have published several articles using historical data sets on plague epidemics using impressive digital databases that contain thousands of recorded outbreaks across Europe over the past several centuries. Through the digitization of preexisting data sets, scholars have unprecedented access to the historical record of plague occurrences. However, although these databases offer new research opportunities, noncritical use and reproduction of preexisting data sets can also limit our understanding of how infectious diseases evolved. Many scholars have performed investigations using Jean-Noël Biraben’s data, which contains information on mentions of plague from various kinds of sources, many of which were not cited. When scholars fail to apply source criticism or do not reflect on the content of the data they use, the reliability of their results becomes highly questionable. Researchers using these databases going forward need to verify and restrict content spatially and temporally, and historians should be encouraged to compile the work.

Highlights

Researchers have published several articles using historical data sets on plague epidemics using impressive digital databases that contain thousands of recorded outbreaks across Europe over the past several centuries
Using a digitized version of this data set, which includes a limited number of outbreaks in northern Africa, authors have boasted impressive collections of documented European plague outbreaks: 6,929 plague outbreaks across Europe during 1347–1900 [4], 7,711 outbreaks across Europe and Asia during 1347–1900 [5], 5,559 outbreaks across Europe and northern Africa during 1347–1760 [6], and 6,656 outbreaks across Europe during 1347–1760 [7]
Biraben had the ambition of constructing a pan-European overview of recurring plague outbreaks, and his work at the time was an extraordinary feat of scholarship, a complete documentation of the occurrence of plague throughout Europe could not be adequately concluded by any single researcher

Summary

Introduction

Researchers have published several articles using historical data sets on plague epidemics using impressive digital databases that contain thousands of recorded outbreaks across Europe over the past several centuries. Noncritical Use of Historical Plague Databases In 2012, Büntgen et al presented the digitized version of the Biraben data set in a short correspondence piece [4].

Results

Conclusion