Dams trigger exponential population declines of migratory fish.

Abstract

The impact of dams on global migratory fish stocks is a major challenge and remains seriously underestimated. China has initiated a dozen fish rescue programs for the dams on the Yangtze River, focusing on five flagship species-Chinese sturgeon, Chinese paddlefish, Yangtze sturgeon, Chinese sucker, and Coreius guichenoti. Despite 40 years of effort, these five fishes are on the verge of extinction. Here, we propose an analytical tool that includes a framework of fish migration taxonomy and six life cycle models, the concepts of invalid stock and the dam impact coefficient, and a simplified population model. We then clarify the migration patterns and life cycles of these fishes and show that the Yangtze dams have severely disrupted the life cycle integrity of these species, causing seven types of invalid stocks and their exponential population declines. Last, we discuss six scientific misjudgments underpinning the fish rescue programs and recommend reforms to China's fish rescue strategy.