Abstract
The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the most politically volatile and food insecure areas on earth. The sum of political upheavals and endemic food-security constraints has reduced many MENA nations to the equivalent of small, import-dependent countries. Such countries are especially vulnerable to commodity-price volatiltity, the focus of this paper. As MENA countries begin to arise from current civil conflict they must attempt to diminish the food-price risk that results from import dependence. This paper describes a constrained-optimization model that can produce optimal domestically-sourced commodity portfolios for re-emerging MENA agricultural sectors, nested in domestic production and strategic storage. The model is driven by the use of financial-economics concepts to inform a representation of commodity-price volatility.
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