Dampened El Niño in the Early Pliocene Warm Period

Abstract

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability, and its predicted response to anthropogenic climate change remains unclear. Determining ENSO's sensitivity to climatic mean state and the strength of positive and negative feedbacks, notably the thermocline feedback, will help constrain its future behavior. To this end, we collected ENSO proxy data from the early and mid‐Pliocene, a time during which tropical Pacific zonal and vertical temperature gradients were much lower than today. We found that El Niño events had a reduced amplitude throughout the early Pliocene, compared to the late Holocene. By the mid‐Pliocene, El Niño amplitude was variable, sometimes reduced and sometimes similar to the late Holocene. This trend in Pliocene ENSO amplitude mirrors the long‐term strengthening of zonal and vertical temperature gradients and verifies model results showing dampened ENSO under reduced gradients due to a weaker thermocline feedback.