Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of exchange rate, SBI, inflation and nikkei 225 indexes on the composite stock price index in the Indonesian stock market. The data used in this study are time series data from the period of January 2013 to December 2017. This study uses the method of vector error correction model (VECM). The results of this study indicate that there is a causal relationship in which the variable that shows the originality is that there is a two-way relationship between inflation against SBI as well as a two-way relationship between SBI and inflation. Whereas the granger causality test can also show the existence of five one-way relationships including the Composite Stock Price Index to the Exchange Rate, the Composite Stock Price Index to the Nikkei 225 Index, the Exchange Rate against SBI, the Exchange Rate to Inflation, and the Nikkei 225 Index to the Exchange Rate. In this study shows the long-term relationship between the Exchange Rate and Inflation variables show a positive effect on the composite stock price index while the SBI variable and the Nikkei 225 Index have a negative influence on the Composite Stock Price Index. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of exchange rate, SBI, inflation and nikkei 225 indexes on the composite stock price index in the Indonesian stock market. The data used in this study are time series data from the period of January 2013 to December 2017. This study uses the method of vector error correction model (VECM). The results of this study indicate that there is a causal relationship in which the variable that shows the originality is that there is a two-way relationship between inflation against SBI as well as a two-way relationship between SBI and inflation. Whereas the granger causality test can also show the existence of five one-way relationships including the Composite Stock Price Index to the Exchange Rate, the Composite Stock Price Index to the Nikkei 225 Index, the Exchange Rate against SBI, the Exchange Rate to Inflation, and the Nikkei 225 Index to the Exchange Rate. In this study shows the long-term relationship between the Exchange Rate and Inflation variables show a positive effect on the composite stock price index while the SBI variable and the Nikkei 225 Index have a negative influence on the Composite Stock Price Index. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:Table Normal; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:107%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri,sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Times New Roman; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
Highlights
Investasi di pasar modal bagi investor masih memberikan potensi keuntungan sangat tinggi
The results of this study indicate that there is a causal relationship in which the variable that shows the originality is that there is a two-way relationship between inflation against Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) as well as a two-way relationship between SBI and inflation
In this study shows the long-term relationship between the Exchange Rate and Inflation variables show a positive effect on the composite stock price index while the SBI variable and the Nikkei 225 Index have a negative influence on the Composite Stock Price Index
Summary
Pada tabel 1.3 Menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga mengalami fluktuasi dari tahun 2013 sampai 2017. Untuk mengukur laju inflasi di Indonesia, salah satu indikator yang sering digunakan yaitu Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) atau Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflasi mengalami penurunan secara bertahap dari 8,38% pada tahun 2013 menjadi 8,36% pada tahun 2014, dan kembali menurun ditahun 2015 yaitu 3,35%. Negara Jepang merupakan konsumen nomor satu ekspor material energi seperti minyak bumi dan batu bara yang berasal dari Indonesia. Pada tabel 1.5 Menunjukan bahwa pertumbuhan Indeks Harga Saham Nikkei 225 pada tahun 2013 sebesar 16.291,31 point dibandingkan tahun 2014 sebesar 17.450,77 point jika dipersentasikan indeks saham Nikkei 225 mengalami penurunan sebesar 7% dari tahun 2014. Setelah pertengahan tahun 2015 indeks saham Nikkei 225 mengalami kenaikan dengan menunjukan tren yang positif dengan nilai pertumbuhan sebesar 9% dari tahun 2014 dimana ada peningkatan harga hingga akhir tahun 2017 indeks harga saham Nikkei 225 terus bergerak fluktuatif mengikuti kondisi perekonomian jepang maupun negara-negara lainnya dengan nilai rata-rata sebesar 18%
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