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Abstract
The research carried out in Serbia so far revealed an increase in forest damages from natural hazards, as well as increased share in total forest damages with their territorial inequality. This research aims to determine the trend in the number and area of damages, the area of damages per one harmful event, and the prognosis of damages caused by the harmful effects of water, wind and fire in selected forest regions of Serbia. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend regression and correlation analysis and other specific methods. The results of the research indicate that there are differences in the trends per harmful factor. An increasing trend is visible with the damages caused by the effects of water and wind but also in the extent of damages caused by all three detrimental factors. A decreasing trend is noticeable only for the damages caused by fire.
Highlights
Climate change is a global challenge, manifested through temperature increase, changes in precipitation and their intensity, and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions (Seneviratne et al, 2012)
This research aims to determine the trend in the number and area of damages, the area of damages per one harmful event, and the prognosis of damages caused by the harmful effects of water, wind and fire in selected forest regions of Serbia
Legend: WA - damages caused by water, WI - damages caused by wind, FI - damages caused by fires, TD - total damages, Т - time, а - free parametar, t(a) - t‐statistics of a free parametar, b - parametar to time, t(b) - t‐statistics of parametar to time, R2-coeficient of determination, R - coeficient of corelation, F - F‐statistics, p - probability of error of F‐statistics
Summary
Climate change is a global challenge, manifested through temperature increase, changes in precipitation and their intensity, and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions (Seneviratne et al, 2012). The expected risks, in the case of the forestry sector are a result of the influence of different factors, including climate change They vary from changes in wind and water regimes, an increase in the risk of forest fires (especially in the Mediterranean region), to more frequent extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts (2017). Previous research indicates that changes in temperature and precipitation in Serbia, caused by climate changes, have significant effects on forests. It is reflected through an increase in the occurrence of floods, landslides and ice breakages (Ranković et al, 2016), torrential floods (Ristić et al, 2012), forest fires (Aleksić et al, 2006) and other natural hazards in forests[1].
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