Damage prediction for planted longleaf pine in extreme winds

Abstract

Severe wind disturbances are forecast to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change putting forest trees at greater risk of wind damage. Of particular concern are mature and old-growth forests of wind-prone regions which host considerable biodiversity. Landscape configuration, stand structure, and tree characteristics affect susceptibility to wind damage. In managed forests and restoration contexts, these factors could be manipulated to enhance resistance to severe wind events. We measured landscape, stand, and tree characteristics, and damage in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forests in southwest Georgia and Northwest Florida affected by Hurricane Michael (2018) and used these data to model wind damage. We hypothesized that wind damage would increase with wind exposure and decrease with diameter-to-height ratio (taper). We found that lower wind exposure and higher taper resulted in substantially lower wind damage. We conclude that maintaining lower stand density during stand development could reduce wind damage by increasing individual tree resistance to wind. Management and restoration activities that increase resilience to threats from extreme weather can help maintain persistence and landscape restoration of global biodiversity hotspots in wind-prone regions.