Abstract

Aiming at the characteristics of complex organization of equipment, uncertain threat degree of target and difficult evaluation of damage effect caused by task diversification, a mission-oriented evaluation method of damage effect of target is proposed based on combat mission requirements. Firstly, the combat characteristics and technical performances of cluster maneuvering targets based on information system are analyzed, and the basic principles, methods and steps of evaluation are determined. Secondly, two evaluation models are established, one is to determine the damage effect by layered weighting method based on investigative information; the other is to predict the target damage by Lanchester equation based on the damage situation of our own equipment, and then to evaluate the damage effect; Finally, the expert experience method is used to endow the two reasonable evaluation model results within heritance factor ρ. The mixed Beta distribution is used to effectively integrate the evaluation results of the two target damage. Task-oriented target damage effect assessment can determine the key nodes affecting the mission, which lays the foundation for formulating operational plan, making operational determination and carrying out efficient equipment support.

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