Daily weather only has small effects on wellbeing in the US

Abstract

Average surface temperatures in the US are now 1.11° Celsius higher than a century ago, and the last years witnessed above-average precipitation. We combine the daily Gallup data and the Agricultural Analytics dataset to address the question of whether such changes in the weather have increased or decreased wellbeing. We find that warmer days are associated with reduced physical health, but higher levels of subjective wellbeing and a higher prevalence of positive emotions. These findings turn out to be completely non-robust, with effects reversing signs when one includes area and behavioural factors that themselves are endogenous. The only consistent result is that, irrespective of what one controls for, the effects are small, with equivalent wellbeing income variations for a 2° Celsius increase worth 0.3% of income.