Abstract
To meet the increasing sailing demand of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic, a daily prediction model of sea ice concentration (SIC) based on the convolutional long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM) algorithm was proposed in this study. Previously, similar deep learning algorithms (such as convolutional neural networks; CNNs) were frequently used to predict monthly changes in sea ice. To verify the validity of the model, the ConvLSTM and CNNs models were compared based on their spatiotemporal scale by calculating the spatial structure similarity, root-mean-square-error, and correlation coefficient. The results show that in the entire test set, the single prediction effect of ConvLSTM was better than that of CNNs. Taking 15 December 2018 as an example, ConvLSTM was superior to CNNs in simulating the local variations in the sea ice concentration in the Northeast Passage, particularly in the vicinity of the East Siberian Sea. Finally, the predictability of ConvLSTM and CNNs was analysed following the iteration prediction method, demonstrating that the predictability of ConvLSTM was better than that of CNNs.
Highlights
The Arctic is covered by sea ice throughout the year, which plays an important role in global climate regulation [1]
The prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated by comparing the daily SSIM from 3 January to 31 December
The RMSE of ConvLSTM was below 5%, while that of the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) was approximately 6%
Summary
The Arctic is covered by sea ice throughout the year, which plays an important role in global climate regulation [1]. In recent decades, the area covered by sea ice in the Arctic has been declining. An increase in temperature causes the sea ice to melt, which causes the sea surface albedo to decrease and solar radiation absorption to increase, and the temperature to continue to rise [2,3]. Changes in sea ice coverage affect the global transportation industry. With the reduction of sea ice coverage, the possibility of navigation in the Arctic is gradually increasing. The Northeast Passage is becoming navigable in summer [4]
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