Cystic echinococcosis dynamics in dogs, humans and cattle: Deterministic and stochastic modeling

Abstract

This work investigates the dynamics of cystic echinococcosis in humans, dogs and cattle. The next generation matrix method is employed to derive the basic reproduction number R0. The normalized forward sensitivity index is used to identify sensitive parameters to disease transmission. The multitype branching process is adopted to compute the likelihood of disease extinction or spread in humans, dogs, and cattle. Numerical results show that both the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibria exist. Sensitivity analysis shows that the most positive sensitive parameters to disease transmission are rate at which human and dog infection from contaminated environments and infectious meat respectively, the rate at which exposed cattle progress to an infectious stage, the rate at which infected dogs defecate, and the rates at which dogs and cattle are recruited are most positive sensitive parameters to disease transmission. The most negative sensitive parameters are the natural mortality rates of dogs and cattle. According to the results of the simulation, there is a high likelihood that cystic echinococcosis will become extinct if the disease arises from echinococcus tapeworms, but a low likelihood if it arises from either infectious meat or an infected dog population. The disease dies, nevertheless, if it emerges from infected people. Based on results, we suggest that measures such as dog indoor keeping, meat inspection and treatment of infected dog population be implemented to control cystic echinococcosis in humans, dogs and cattle.