CYCLONE STABILITY PARAMETER: ITS NUMERICAL VALUE AND SIGNIFICANCE IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF TRACK DETERMINATION

Abstract

The study of the dynamics of tropical cyclones constitutes a major portion of the curriculum for atmospheric science throughout the world. This is due to its enormous significance on the coastal human civilization all over the world. The increase in sea surface temperature globally has led to an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones. As many as ten deadly tropical cyclones have hit the Coromandel Coast of the Bay of Bengal Coastline after generating depressions from the Bay of Bengal in the last decade. The most challenging part lies in the early detection of tropical depressions in the ocean bed, the consequent intensity prediction of the generated tropical cyclone, and the forecasting of the resulting path of propagation of the cyclone in landmass. For these a detailed analytic study of the related cyclone dynamics governing equations, their corresponding solution, propounding of the cyclone analytic solution model, and estimation of some critical parameters based on real cyclone data for the validation of the analytic model is of utmost importance. Radio Sonde Radio Wind (RSRW) data analysis for 5 cyclones and subsequent Cyclone Stability Parameter (CSP)determination, simplification of the complicated expression of and its subsequent significance is the main work of this paper. The is the representative of the entire analysis of the governing equations of tropical cyclones in the applicable coordinate system of a previously performed important work. So this work is also a validation of the previously performed analytic work. We have also analytically simplified the expression of through some approximations and chalked out a more lucid expression which is a function of only. This work effectively unites analytic and numerical performances for more effective prediction of tropical cyclone path of propagation in landmass after their formation in tropical oceans.