Cyclist Injury Severity in Spain: A Bayesian Analysis of Police Road Injury Data Focusing on Involved Vehicles and Route Environment.

Rachel Aldred,Susana García-Herrero,Miguel Ángel Mariscal,Esther Anaya,Sixto Herrera

doi:10.3390/ijerph17010096

Abstract

This study analyses factors associated with cyclist injury severity, focusing on vehicle type, route environment, and interactions between them. Data analysed was collected by Spanish police during 2016 and includes records relating to 12,318 drivers and cyclist involving in collisions with at least one injured cyclist, of whom 7230 were injured cyclists. Bayesian methods were used to model relationships between cyclist injury severity and circumstances related to the crash, with the outcome variable being whether a cyclist was killed or seriously injured (KSI) rather than slightly injured. Factors in the model included those relating to the injured cyclist, the route environment, and involved motorists. Injury severity among cyclists was likely to be higher where an Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) was involved, and certain route conditions (bicycle infrastructure, 30 kph zones, and urban zones) were associated with lower injury severity. Interactions exist between the two: collisions involving large vehicles in lower-risk environments are less likely to lead to KSIs than collisions involving large vehicles in higher-risk environments. Finally, motorists involved in a collision were more likely than the injured cyclists to have committed an error or infraction. The study supports the creation of infrastructure that separates cyclists from motor traffic. Also, action needs to be taken to address motorist behaviour, given the imbalance between responsibility and risk.

Highlights

Cyclists are considered ‘vulnerable road users’ because, like pedestrians, they are at relatively high risk of serious injury compared to drivers of motor vehicles
This study investigates the following questions: (i) What route environment, vehicle, and rider/driver-related factors are associated with elevated cyclist KSI risk (Risk of being killed or seriously injured, if involved in an injury collision recorded by the police)?
This study found a higher risk for cyclists in Spain of being killed or seriously injured where Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) are involved in a collision, compared to other vehicles, which is consistent with previous studies that used national-level data [33]

Summary

Introduction

Cyclists are considered ‘vulnerable road users’ because, like pedestrians, they are at relatively high risk of serious injury compared to drivers of motor vehicles. Much previous research on cyclist injury severity has examined cyclist characteristics, often focusing on helmet wearing and head injuries [2]. Another group of studies examined (mis)behaviours including use of alcohol or drugs [3]. Other research has targeted demographic correlates of injury risk, finding older people to be more vulnerable to severe injury [4]. Another strand of work concentrated on route conditions, from permanent fixed infrastructure to temporary conditions such as weather or light levels [5,6,7,8]. Bicycle infrastructure has been found to reduce injury severity, as have street characteristics such as lower speed limits, and secondary or tertiary

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