Cyclicity and variability in prey dynamics strengthens predator numerical response: the effects of vole fluctuations on white stork productivity

Abstract

Theory predicts that optimality of life-long investment in reproduction is, among other factors, driven by the variability and predictability of the resources. Similarly, during the breeding season, single resource pulses characterized by short periods and high amplitudes enable strong numerical responses in their consumers. However, it is less well established how spatio-temporal dynamics in resource supplies influence the spatio-temporal variation of consumer reproduction. We used the common vole (Microtus arvalis)—white stork (Ciconia ciconia) resource—consumer model system to test the effect of increased temporal variation and periodicity of vole population dynamics on the strength of the local numerical response of storks. We estimated variability, cycle amplitude, and periodicity (by means of direct and delayed density dependence) in 13 Czech and Polish vole populations. Cross-correlation between annual stork productivity and vole abundance, characterizing the strength of the local numerical response of storks, increased when the vole population fluctuated more and population cycles were shorter. We further show that the onset of incubation of storks was delayed during the years of higher vole abundance. We demonstrate that high reproductive flexibility of a generalist consumer in tracking the temporal dynamics of its resource is driven by the properties of the local resource dynamics and we discuss possible mechanisms behind these patterns.