Abstract

The cyclical behavior of an econometric short-term model is an important criterion of its usefulness. Consequently, it has been a subject of econometric model research from its beginnings. In most cases, this interest focuses on the question, how well a model catches the (economic) turning points of important variables such as GNP or inflation rate. The results of such a turning point analysis are, however, seldom clearcut and it is rather difficult to get an undisputed picture of a model's cyclical performance because the model-simulations catch the different variables' turning points i in varying degrees .

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