Abstract

This paper explores first not only at the medium-term, but also at the long-term “growth cycles”. The peaks of the former actually correspond to those of the fixed investment-GNP ratio. It further stresses the possibility that the Jinmu and Iwato booms could have been combined into one cycle under some conditions. If this is so, before 1970, we could have two super-booms: the Jinmu-Iwato and the Izanagi booms, and after 1970, two long-continued recessions: the 1980–83 and the Heisei recessions. This seems to suggest the necessity of using the long swings (the Kuznets as well as the Kondratiev type) for the explanation of the postwar 50-year dynamism, in addition to short- and medium-term cycles.

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