Cyclical causalities between the U.S. wholesale beef and feed prices: A Markov-switching approach

Abstract

Abstract: This paper examines whether some major livestock feed prices as corn, sorghum, hay and barley play a leading role in the regime switching dynamics between two states of the beef price cycles and have nonlinear effects on wholesale beef market in the U.S. using time-varying transition probability Markov-switching autoregressive model (TVTP). The study reveals that real wholesale beef price movement in the U.S. red meat market exhibits a nonlinear two regimes pattern. This evidence indicates that livestock feed prices provides some predicted power to the model of beef price regime switching and supports livestock feed prices contributing to whether the beef price levels remains in high-mean regime.