Cyclic Organization of Geological Environment: Permafrost Zone of Yakutia

Abstract

High concentration of mining enterprises in cryolithozone in Yakutia can become the reason of economic loss because of climate warming anomalies. The paper deals with the investigation of the features of cryolithosystems reaction to climate change and search for a certain rhythmic ordering of climatic fluctuations and response to it of space-time shifts in cryolithosystems. According to the results of engineering and geological surveys carried out by the authors in 2001-2017, numerical modeling of series of average annual temperatures of the hydrometeorological station Yakutsk (Central Yakutia) was conducted by means of Fourier Analysis, wavelet Analysis and series autocorrelation analysis. Temperature fluctuations associated with 11, 22, 36. 48 and 72-year solar-conditioned cycles were detected. The wavelet analysis also showed the presence of less short-term periodic oscillations. A large cyclic temperature wave with a period of about 75 years is revealed. A forecast of the development of warming change in Yakutia for the coming decades is made. After a short decline in the rate of warming, intensification of its dynamics in the late twenties and during the thirties of this century, as well as in the second half of the current century cycle is predicted. Inertial processes in the permafrost zone will lead to its greatest destruction in 20-30 years after the accentuation of increased warming.