Abstract
This article is part of the analysis of business cycles and the convergence of integrated economies. In contrast to work on the convergence of business cycles in a monetary union, we study the synchronization of business cycles within the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), characterized by heterogeneity monetary. Thus, we first extract cycles from GDP using the Baxter and King (1999) filter; then we date the cycles using the Bry and Boschan (BB, 1971) algorithm, and finally we measure cyclical co-movements using the Harding and Pagan (2006) concordance index. Furthermore, sigma-convergence is used to measure the degree of closeness over time of the identified economies, on the one hand, and beta-convergence to measure their adjustment process over time with respect to a reference value, on the other hand. The results obtained attest to the asynchronous nature of business cycles in the ECCAS zone over the period from 1990 to 2018. Thus, a weak trend towards convergence, both nominal (inflation, basic budget balance, public debt ratio) and real (GDP/capita and GNI/capita) has been observed since 2001.
Highlights
The current economic situation, marked by the Covid19 pandemic, has revived the problems relating to the management of economic shocks (Rodrik, 2014; Tornell & Lane, 1999) and the resilience of integrated economies (Krugman, 1993; Watson, 1994)
In contrast to work on the convergence of business cycles in a monetary union, we study the synchronization of business cycles within the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), characterized by heterogeneity monetary
According to these authors, one of the criteria put forward is the cost associated with asymmetric shocks likely to affect the economies of the member countries of an economic area
Summary
The current economic situation, marked by the Covid pandemic, has revived the problems relating to the management of economic shocks (Rodrik, 2014; Tornell & Lane, 1999) and the resilience of integrated economies (Krugman, 1993; Watson, 1994). That is a sample of six countries representing nearly 90%5 of the wealth generated in the ECCAS zone In this regard, it is interesting to examine the synchronization or otherwise of business cycles and the convergence of the economies of the Economic Community of Central African States. The present reflection is a contribution to the analysis of the links between the business cycle and economic convergence within an economic zone, in that it makes it possible to determine the synchronous or asynchronous nature of economic cycles, on the one hand, and to analyze the nominal and real convergence of integrated economies, on the other It is argued here as a hypothesis that, because of the differences observed in the level of diversification of the economiesstudied, economic cycles are asynchronous and that there is economic divergence within the Community. Country Angola Burundi Cameroon Central african republic Republic of Congo Democratic Republic of Congo Gabon Equatorial Guinea Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Chad ECCAS area which EMCCA zone Source : ceeac-eccas.org; 2017
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
