Cybersecurity Technology Foresight: 2040 Scenarios for Turkey

Abstract

Foresight is a methodical and comprehensive approach that prioritizes investment and research in order to shape the future and implement future strategies. Cybersecurity, one of the most important elements of Industry 4.0, is to protect information and communication systems against cyber attacks and to ensure the availability, confi-dentiality and integrity of these systems and the data therein. This study aims to make a theoretical and practical contribution to foresight and cybersecurity studies by summarizing the updated version of the methods and outputs used in the doctoral thesis titled “Technology Foresight and Modeling: Turkish Cybersecurity Foresight 2040”, con-ducted at Middle East Technical University (METU) in 2019. As a result of the study, Turkey's national cybersecurity technology foresight was given with different scenarios; Turkey's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in terms of cybersecurity were determined; a cybersecurity technology taxonomy which is officially accepted by the Presidency of Defense Industries was created; the cybersecurity status of the universities and companies in Turkey has been determined; and concrete policy recommendations based on foresight outputs have been put forward. The study is the most comprehensive cybersecurity foresight in Turkey in terms of topics covered and participants, which comprises nearly 150 experts from government, military, academia, and the private sector. Overall, the study provides important insights into the current state of cybersecurity in Turkey and makes recommendations for the future. Its wide range of stakeholders and comprehensive analysis make it a valuable resource for understanding the complex landscape of cybersecurity in the country.