Cyber-physical systems research and education in 2030: Scenarios and strategies

Abstract

Future cyber-physical systems (CPS), such as smart cities, collaborative robots, autonomous vehicles or intelligent transport systems, are expected to be highly intelligent, electrified, and connected. This study explores a focal question about how these new characteristics may affect the education and research related to CPS in 2030, the date identified by the United Nations to achieve the Agenda for Sustainable Development. To this end, first, we have conducted a trend spotting activity, seeking to identify possible influencing factors that may have a great impact on the future of CPS education and research.These factors were clustered in a total of 12 trends – four certainties; namely connectivity, electrification, data and automation – and eight uncertainties; namely intelligence, data ethics, labour market, lifelong learning, higher education, trust in technology, technological development speed, and sustainable development goals.After that, two of the eight uncertainties are identified and used to construct a scenario matrix, which includes four scenarios. These two uncertainties – the so-called strategic uncertainties – are: fulfilment of sustainable development goals and the nature of the technological development, respectively. These two important uncertainties are considered to build the scenarios due to their potential impact on the research and education of CPS. For instance, sustainable development goals are significant targets for many initiatives, organisations and countries. While 2030 is the deadline to achieve these goals, the relationship between the sustainable development goals related to CPS research and education is not studied well. Similarly, the speed of technological development is seen as a driving force behind future CPS. However, the effect of this speed to CPS research and education environment is not known.Different outcomes of the chosen two uncertainties are, then, combined with the remaining trends and uncertainties. Consequently, four scenarios are derived. The Terminator scenario illustrates a dystopian future where profit is the driving force behind technological progress and sustainable development goals are not accomplished. In contrast, The Iron Giant scenario represents the successful implementation of the sustainable development goals where technological development is the force behind the accomplishment of these goals. The scenario called Slow Progress represents a future where gradual technological improvements are present, but sustainability is still not seen as concerning the issue. The Humanist scenario illustrates a future where slow technological development is happening yet sustainable development goals are successfully implemented.Finally, the scenarios are used to initiate discussions by illustrating what the future of research and education could look like and a list of strategies for future CPS research and education environments is proposed. To this end, we invite educators, researchers, institutions and governments to develop the necessary strategies to enable data-orientated, continuous, interdisciplinary, collaborative, ethical, and sustainable research and education by improving digital fluency, advancing digital equality, contributing to new ways of teaching complex thinking, expanding access to learning platforms and preparing next generations to adapt for a rapidly changing future of work conditions.