Cyber Deterrence: The Past, Present, and Future

Abstract

AbstractThe question on whether and how deterring an adversary in or through cyberspace is feasible has provoked the minds of scholars and practitioners for decades. Today, cyber deterrence remains a quintessential anchoring concept for the political debates on cyber policy. However, does the concept of deterrence in cyberspace have a future when for almost three decades little to no seemingly feasible practical solutions nor an academic consensus have emerged? The purpose of this chapter is to situate the current debate on cyber deterrence within the historical evolution of deterrence thinking in cyberspace, clarify the existing conceptualizations, and comprehensively discuss whether the concept of cyber deterrence has an analytical future. We argue that the future deterrence debate can move into four directions: increased incorporation of cyber deterrence as an element within the broader international security and contest in a multi-domain world. A deeper focus on the technical aspects of the cyber domain to achieve deterrence effects on the operational and tactical level. A closer analysis of compellence, as the alternative form of coercion. And an exploration of new strategic concepts that seeks to contain and blunt adversarial aggression in cyberspace that stands apart from traditional deterrence thinking.