Abstract
On 30 January 2020 World Health Organization (WHO), declared the novel corona virus as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), COVID-19 virus as an epidemic transmitted virus. It was on 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country office was informed the cases of pneumonia unknown etiology detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province of China. Just after WHO’s declaration, Ethiopia has taken different measures to protect from this public health emergency problem. The disease is human to human transmitted virus. It comes from outside of the country, so that it opens check points in different entrance of the country. However, in 13 March 2020 the first positive case was reported from Japanese man. The virus is continuing the transmission in the public progressively more. While this research has been working, within 90 days from the first case, the country reported 2506 positive cases, 35 deaths. The research has done after collecting the first 90 days of data in Ethiopian case. Daily report announced by Ethiopian MoH is based on the test. And hence, the reported data as positive cases with COVID-19 is not actual positive case data in the country. There for, this paper has contribution for planning and taking further measure on the viruses by demonstrating the next 90 days predictive data. I use best curve fitting analysis using python function of the module polyfit algorithm to predict the trend of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia.
Highlights
On 30 January 2020 World Health Organization (WHO), declared the novel corona virus as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), COVID-19 virus as an epidemic transmitted virus. It was on 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country office was informed the cases of pneumonia unknown etiology detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province of China
I use best curve fitting analysis using python function of the module polyfit algorithm to predict the trend of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia
On the first month 2.17% are reporting as positive case, where as the second month reduce to 0.68% from the total test and 0.54% within the second month
Summary
COVID-19 is an Epidemic viruses, it spreads all over the world with short period. A. Balcha the first case in Ethiopia reported the number of transmission rate is very less for about the first 50 days, relative to other world cases [11] [12] [13]. There were 145 total cases reported as COVID-19 positive with in fifty four days, 0.58% total cases from total test After this day on wards the spreading speed becomes up. The paper gives good estimated prediction of the number of population that has the virus, so that MoH and Ethiopian Government can use this for initial source document to take measure on the virus, and for researchers it can be good resource to have initial value for further data analysis
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
